NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Sun Jan 18 11:27 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190427
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of Colombia through the
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale force winds at night
offshore Colombia through Wed. Rough to locally very rough seas
are forecast with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from
06N17W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection within 200 nm on
both sides of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The cold front that was moving across the Gulf waters is currently
east of the basin. A 1027 mb high pressure system dominates the
Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh N winds east of a line from the
Florida Big Bend to 20N97W in the SW Gulf. Rough to very rough
seas are occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to rough seas
are found in the eastern and south-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, lingering fresh to strong N winds in the Bay of
Campeche will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds tonight,
however rough seas are forecast to subside late Mon. High
pressure will build southward into the region on Mon with
improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening
high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to
locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek, as well
as a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.
A cold front extends from the Bay of Pigs in western Cuba to the
Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident
in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front, between the Cayman
Islands and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient behind the front
forces fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The
remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh
AXNT20 KNHC 190427
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of Colombia through the
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale force winds at night
offshore Colombia through Wed. Rough to locally very rough seas
are forecast with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from
06N17W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection within 200 nm on
both sides of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The cold front that was moving across the Gulf waters is currently
east of the basin. A 1027 mb high pressure system dominates the
Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh N winds east of a line from the
Florida Big Bend to 20N97W in the SW Gulf. Rough to very rough
seas are occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to rough seas
are found in the eastern and south-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, lingering fresh to strong N winds in the Bay of
Campeche will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds tonight,
however rough seas are forecast to subside late Mon. High
pressure will build southward into the region on Mon with
improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening
high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to
locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek, as well
as a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.
A cold front extends from the Bay of Pigs in western Cuba to the
Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident
in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front, between the Cayman
Islands and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient behind the front
forces fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The
remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh