NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Fri Jul 17 1:29 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1651 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along
22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite
imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W
and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development
over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.
Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and
58W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent
satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this
area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the
western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high,
gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail.
Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper
level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster
of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from
25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo
Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail
elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will
support thunderstorms
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1651 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along
22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite
imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W
and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development
over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.
Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and
58W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent
satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this
area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the
western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high,
gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail.
Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper
level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster
of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from
25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo
Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail
elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will
support thunderstorms