NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Sun Oct 18 10:55 pm
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190255
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Trudy is centered near 19.7N 107.6W at 19/0300 UTC,
moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85
kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 104W
and 108W. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected
tonight into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy
will move further away from the coast of mainland Mexico during
the overnight hours, then move south of Baja California Sur on
Monday and Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected to continue
tonight into Monday, and Trudy could degenerate to a post-
tropical low by Tuesday night. Swells generated by Trudy are
affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico during the next two to three days. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details on Trudy.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1026 mb high pressure system
over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending
downstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue
night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish
below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force,
along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 16N and east of
102W and south of 10N and west of 123W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient across the Gulf of
California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds and
moderate seas, especially in the central portion of the basin.
Rough seas associated with Trudy are found in the southern part
of the Gulf of California. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will weaken to a tropical
storm near 19.8N 107.9W Mon morning, move to 19.8N 108.5W Mon
evening, 19.9N 109.3W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near
20.4N 109.8W Tue evening, 21.1N 110.1W Wed morning, and dissipate
Wed evening. A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico
continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap
AXPZ20 KNHC 190255
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Trudy is centered near 19.7N 107.6W at 19/0300 UTC,
moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85
kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 104W
and 108W. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected
tonight into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy
will move further away from the coast of mainland Mexico during
the overnight hours, then move south of Baja California Sur on
Monday and Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected to continue
tonight into Monday, and Trudy could degenerate to a post-
tropical low by Tuesday night. Swells generated by Trudy are
affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico during the next two to three days. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details on Trudy.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1026 mb high pressure system
over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending
downstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue
night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish
below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force,
along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 16N and east of
102W and south of 10N and west of 123W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient across the Gulf of
California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds and
moderate seas, especially in the central portion of the basin.
Rough seas associated with Trudy are found in the southern part
of the Gulf of California. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will weaken to a tropical
storm near 19.8N 107.9W Mon morning, move to 19.8N 108.5W Mon
evening, 19.9N 109.3W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near
20.4N 109.8W Tue evening, 21.1N 110.1W Wed morning, and dissipate
Wed evening. A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico
continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap